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EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making 5/1/03
Instructor: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp Chapter 7 - Page 69
Source: Making Hard Decisions, An Introduction to Decision Analysis by R.T. Clemen
7. PROBABILITY BASICS
= an event with possible outcomes ;
Total Event
Example:
Un
i
iA
1=
==?
nAA ,,1 LA
Heads 1 =A Tails 2 =A
Tailsor Heads =?
Coin a Flipping =A
EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making 5/1/03
Instructor: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp Chapter 7 - Page 70
Source: Making Hard Decisions, An Introduction to Decision Analysis by R.T. Clemen
PROBABILITY CALCULUS
Probability Rules may be derived using VENN DIAGRAMS
1. Probabilities must lie between 0 and 1 for all possible outcomes in omega:
????? 11 ,1)Pr(0 AA
1A
?
Ratio of area of the event and the area of the total rectangle
can be interpreted as the probability of the event
EMSE 269 - Elements of P...

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