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Lecture Notes for EMSE 269 - Problem Solving & Decision Mak with Dorp at George Washington (GW)

Notes Information

Material Type:Class Note
Professor:Dorp
Class:EMSE 269 - Problem Solving & Decision Mak
Subject:Engr Mgt & Systems Engineering
University:George Washington University
Term:Spring 2003
Keywords:
  • Unfortunately
  • Total Probability
  • Substituting
  • Independence
  • Probabilities
  • Introduction
  • Exclusive Or
  • Dominance (b)
  • Problem Solving
  • Conditional
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Sample Document Text

EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making 5/1/03 Instructor: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp Chapter 7 - Page 69 Source: Making Hard Decisions, An Introduction to Decision Analysis by R.T. Clemen 7. PROBABILITY BASICS = an event with possible outcomes ; Total Event Example: Un i iA 1= ==? nAA ,,1 LA Heads 1 =A Tails 2 =A Tailsor Heads =? Coin a Flipping =A EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making 5/1/03 Instructor: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp Chapter 7 - Page 70 Source: Making Hard Decisions, An Introduction to Decision Analysis by R.T. Clemen PROBABILITY CALCULUS Probability Rules may be derived using VENN DIAGRAMS 1. Probabilities must lie between 0 and 1 for all possible outcomes in omega: ????? 11 ,1)Pr(0 AA 1A ? Ratio of area of the event and the area of the total rectangle can be interpreted as the probability of the event EMSE 269 - Elements of P...

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