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Class:  OPER 3100  Operations Management 
Subject:  Operations Management 
University:  University of North Carolina  Charlotte 
Term:  Spring 2011 
Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique? A) consumer survey B) random individual opinions C) group of expert's opinions D) test markets E) historic data  C is the correct answer. Consumer survey is another forecasting technique. Delphi obtains information from a group of experts rather than relying on individual opinions. Under Delphi approach, no test markets are conducted nor are historical data used. 
Which of the following statements are true about timeseries forecasting? A) Time series analysis is based on the idea that the history of occurrences over time can be used to predict the future. B) Time series analysis tries to understand the system underlying and surrounding the item being forecast. C) Under time series methods, demand is divided into the timebased components such as daily, weekly, etc. D) Time series methods are useful for longrange forecasts when the demand pattern is erratic E) A, B, and C  A is the correct answer. Option B is a description of casual analysis. C is incorrect because under time series methods, demand can be divided into components such as trend, seasonality, cycle, random variation and autocorrelation. 
Under exponential smoothing, if we want our forecast to be very responsive to recent demand, the value of alpha should be: A) large B) small C) moderate D) zero E) the value of alpha doesn't matter  A is the correct answer. The higher the alpha the more responsive/sensitive will be the forecast when using the exponential smoothing technique. 
Which of the following would not be classified as a time series technique? A) Simple moving average B) Exponential smoothing C) Box Jenkins technique D) Regression model E) Trend projections  D is the answer. Regression models are causal models and not timeseries analysis. 
Given that the previous forecast of 65 turned out to be four units less than the actual demand. The next forecast is 66. What would be the value of alpha if the simple exponential smoothing forecast method is being used? A) 0.02 B) 0.4 C) 0.04 D) 0.25 E) none of the above  D is the correct answer. 66 = 65 + alpha (6965). Therefore, alpha = 0.25. 
Which of the following would not be classified as a component of demand? A) Trend B) Seasonality C) Cycle D) Autocorrelation E) Causal variation  E is the correct answer. Random variation and not causal variation is a component of demand. 
A __________ model is usually more accurate than a ______ model for mediumtolongrange forecasts. A) Timeseries decomposition, causal regression B) Causal regression, timeseries decomposition C) Timeseries decomposition, simple exponential smoothing D) Simple exponential smoothing, timeseries decomposition E) Simple exponential smoothing, causal regression  B is the correct answer. Causal regression technique is good for any time horizon, timeseries decomposition is good for short to medium time horizons, while simple exponential smoothing is a good technique for shortterm forecasting. 
An accuracy measure that may be used to indicate any positive or negative bias in the forecast is: A) Tracking signal B) Mean absolute deviation C) Mean squared error D) Standard error E) None of the above  A is the correct answer. A, B, and D all are based on either absolute values or squares of data, therefore resulting in positive values always, even for negative errors. They are therefore not able to show bias. 
A forecasting method that uses several simple forecasting rules and computer simulation of these rules on past data is called: A) Simulation B) Input/output C) Focus forecasting D) Historical analog E) None of the above  C is the correct answer. Simulations are dynamic models, usually computerbased, that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model. Input/output models focus on sales of each industry to other firms and governments. Historical analog is important in planning new products where a forecast may be derived by using the history of similar products. 
The Delphi method was developed to assure that A) Senior management is supported in implementing their executive forecast B) The person closest to the customer has the greatest input to the forecast C) Critical historical information drives the forecast mean D) Everybody knows each person's true beliefs about the future so as to avoid hidden biases E) None of the above  E is correct. 
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Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique? A) consumer survey B) random individual opinions C) group of expert's opinions D) test markets E) historic data  C is the correct answer. Consumer survey is another forecasting technique. Delphi obtains information from a group of experts rather than relying on individual opinions. Under Delphi approach, no test markets are conducted nor are historical data used.  
Which of the following statements are true about timeseries forecasting? A) Time series analysis is based on the idea that the history of occurrences over time can be used to predict the future. B) Time series analysis tries to understand the system underlying and surrounding the item being forecast. C) Under time series methods, demand is divided into the timebased components such as daily, weekly, etc. D) Time series methods are useful for longrange forecasts when the demand pattern is erratic E) A, B, and C  A is the correct answer. Option B is a description of casual analysis. C is incorrect because under time series methods, demand can be divided into components such as trend, seasonality, cycle, random variation and autocorrelation.  
Under exponential smoothing, if we want our forecast to be very responsive to recent demand, the value of alpha should be: A) large B) small C) moderate D) zero E) the value of alpha doesn't matter  A is the correct answer. The higher the alpha the more responsive/sensitive will be the forecast when using the exponential smoothing technique.  
Which of the following would not be classified as a time series technique? A) Simple moving average B) Exponential smoothing C) Box Jenkins technique D) Regression model E) Trend projections  D is the answer. Regression models are causal models and not timeseries analysis.  
Given that the previous forecast of 65 turned out to be four units less than the actual demand. The next forecast is 66. What would be the value of alpha if the simple exponential smoothing forecast method is being used? A) 0.02 B) 0.4 C) 0.04 D) 0.25 E) none of the above  D is the correct answer. 66 = 65 + alpha (6965). Therefore, alpha = 0.25.  
Which of the following would not be classified as a component of demand? A) Trend B) Seasonality C) Cycle D) Autocorrelation E) Causal variation  E is the correct answer. Random variation and not causal variation is a component of demand.  
A __________ model is usually more accurate than a ______ model for mediumtolongrange forecasts. A) Timeseries decomposition, causal regression B) Causal regression, timeseries decomposition C) Timeseries decomposition, simple exponential smoothing D) Simple exponential smoothing, timeseries decomposition E) Simple exponential smoothing, causal regression  B is the correct answer. Causal regression technique is good for any time horizon, timeseries decomposition is good for short to medium time horizons, while simple exponential smoothing is a good technique for shortterm forecasting.  
An accuracy measure that may be used to indicate any positive or negative bias in the forecast is: A) Tracking signal B) Mean absolute deviation C) Mean squared error D) Standard error E) None of the above  A is the correct answer. A, B, and D all are based on either absolute values or squares of data, therefore resulting in positive values always, even for negative errors. They are therefore not able to show bias.  
A forecasting method that uses several simple forecasting rules and computer simulation of these rules on past data is called: A) Simulation B) Input/output C) Focus forecasting D) Historical analog E) None of the above  C is the correct answer. Simulations are dynamic models, usually computerbased, that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model. Input/output models focus on sales of each industry to other firms and governments. Historical analog is important in planning new products where a forecast may be derived by using the history of similar products.  
The Delphi method was developed to assure that A) Senior management is supported in implementing their executive forecast B) The person closest to the customer has the greatest input to the forecast C) Critical historical information drives the forecast mean D) Everybody knows each person's true beliefs about the future so as to avoid hidden biases E) None of the above  E is correct. 
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